• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2217

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Thu Nov 7 23:04:38 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 072304
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072304=20
    TXZ000-080100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

    Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072304Z - 080100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further
    upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a
    risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface
    gusts later this evening. The risk for tornadoes appears low, but
    perhaps not out of the question.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo. This appears
    focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection
    with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing.=20
    Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a
    fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500
    J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow.
    Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent,
    continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened
    mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further
    increase in convective development and upscale growth. Given the
    environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in
    stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential
    for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly
    shifts northeastward/eastward.

    ..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3W5EmIV3dcqoEE1AUDGPgqlR2gHMBE-gvjFwavIPWmoAOzuSFf2ZW01Bc7508p2mTX3h0EDc= bUFLHQFMa4pis9cPQM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090
    31070105 31360098=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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