ACUS11 KWNS 280239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280239=20
INZ000-ILZ000-280415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northern IL into extreme northwest IN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658...

Valid 280239Z - 280415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind may persist through
late evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has largely become outflow dominant this
evening across northern IL, within an environment that is strongly
unstable (with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg), but with only weak to
marginal deep-layer shear. Favorable thermodynamic profiles (as
noted on the 00Z ILX/DVN soundings) will continue to support briefly
intense updrafts with isolated hail potential. A large area of
convective outflow has moved into western IL from northeast
MO/southeast IA, with smaller outflows being generated by
redeveloping storms within the primary instability axis. Locally
damaging winds may accompany this outflow-dominant convection
through late evening, before increasingly extensive convective
overturning results in a weakening trend overnight.

..Dean.. 08/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FPbwlWXEorRkNJX8P1TaZwnDpe8A13NHxohfXBfrDue3sEHTjdCX6sd5lVKhBW8ierOTcf_v= tWZfudF8m27JKudNZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41079060 41458884 41528784 41558737 41418713 41118715
40818752 40538853 40428999 40439026 40509056 41079060=20


=3D =3D =3D
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