ACUS11 KWNS 252016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252015=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Areas affected...Far north-central Nebraska and south-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252015Z - 252245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though isolated, a supercell or two could pose a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon. A watch is possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have begun to develop within a weak
frontal low near Valentine/Ainsworth. This area and adjacent
south-central South Dakota will likely be the initiation zone for
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Large-scale ascent is quite weak
within the upper ridge and the timing of initiation is not
completely certain. Most short-term guidance would suggest
developing between 21-22Z. Morning observed soundings from the
region show very steep lapse-rates aloft. Moderate southwesterly
flow aloft is supporting 35-45 kts of shear. Initial development
would likely be supercellular with a risk for large hail (primarily
1-1.75 in.) and severe wind gusts (60-75 mph). There is a
conditional threat for very large hail, but generally warm
temperatures in the profile as well as modest flow at anvil level
suggest that threat would be low. The tornado threat will be low on
account of weak low-level winds and large temperature-dewpoint
spreads at the surface; however, storms near the boundary could
stretch low-level vorticity and produce a brief tornado. Storm
coverage appears that it will remain isolated, although storms could
be intense. A watch could be considered this afternoon as convective
trends warrant.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7BjKk3nZz9FU9vvaqjGwgZcT0dPRYY1DLPDiFSr5CGs51R62yBtfMxQ121NFB7zWO7D1bQbcY= kSwKETOHkTbtMKkGPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42619892 42419994 42600051 42850070 43330062 43970027
44759950 44849853 44659813 44119788 43259809 42619892=20


=3D =3D =3D
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