ACUS11 KWNS 181953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181953=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-182100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...central Arkansas...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181953Z - 182100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in
coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and
damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is likely across central
Arkansas into northern Mississippi over the next 1-2 hours as a cold
front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of the front is
characterized by as sharp MLCAPE gradient around 1000-3000 J/kg with temperatures near 100 F and dew points in the low to mid 70s. A belt
of deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and the moist and unstable air
mass will support multicell clusters, capable of damaging wind and
instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be needed for portions
of this area to cover this threat soon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5S_UHqx-Pn9rgVXfk0OMOyuJaL-QXkjcBX0mWKUr6P8INmwQmDaQYD8rqE5s_i5m6K_v10jdE= oazf1PBs2InXG8Sw_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 33279179 32658985 32598899 32898866 33148849 33388848
33918832 34128845 34318965 34799083 35359212 35349216
36049315 36419410 36049457 35059446 34109355 33389217
33279179=20


=3D =3D =3D
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