ACUS11 KWNS 170221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170221=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-170345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma into far northwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

Valid 170221Z - 170345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 628, with a severe wind/hail threat persisting. Upscale growth
into a more organized cluster of storms is possible, and local
spatial/temporal extensions of the watch may be needed should this
upscale growth occur.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells persist across northeast OK
with a history of severe wind and hail. These storms are displaced
slightly on the cool side of a convective outflow boundary that
continues to surge southward in tandem with a leading convective
complex in northwestern AR. MLCINH will increase through the evening
given nocturnal cooling. However, the rate of MLCINH increase will
be gradual given abundant low-level moisture, which is also
contributing to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given adequate deep-layer shear
also in place, at least a short-term severe threat should persist.
However, should storms catch up to and anchor along the leading
outflow boundary while also merging cold pools, a more organized MCS
could materialize with a persistent severe gust threat, and an
occasional instance of large hail also possible. Should an MCS
develop, temporal and/or spatial southward extensions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 628 may be needed.

..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lg4or7mF_eFs8-xfngGcfdxBCuZUIM5fw1bwl-YbbdF5OueVmoDLzHIbETy49ZuflXGtCPVp= Y91-fxJpBhoQ3VOuoo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35369608 35889652 36499658 36869641 36989592 36959520
36779434 36449384 36149386 35739411 35259441 34839469
34579504 34549519 34959592 35369608=20


=3D =3D =3D
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