ACUS11 KWNS 062030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062029=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania
and New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...606...

Valid 062029Z - 062130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605, 606
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 605-606. Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat,
though a couple instances of large hail are possible and a tornado
still cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...At least three linear convective complexes have
organized across northern OH into PA and NJ over the last few hours,
with the north OH and central PA complexes having a history of
producing strong, damaging gusts. A radar-indicated tornado also
occurred with a QLCS circulation just south of Cleveland, OH. The
western lines of storms are progressive, with the central PA line of
storms having the most residence time within an ambient unstable
airmass characterized by 85-90 F surface temperatures and up to 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. However, the northern OH complex is poised to
overspread a convectively overturned airmass over the next few
hours, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. In the
meantime (i.e. next couple of hours), an additional QLCS tornado may
still occur given the presence of mesovortices established in the
leading-line of convection. Storms in southeast PA into NJ are not
as progressive, and they have been overturning the airmass in the
region, which may limit the severe threat with the central PA storms
as they approach this worked over airmass.

..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9p1vDGE0lhI0HW43NlJ1PfrZAEhn7QjqFgBvs5nwmT3TcodUriPUiUPgcHfLTzvFM1jp26Z07= iTV519o3C1KMiUUavE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41448295 41878061 41477492 40527374 39927391 39567532
39757871 40038122 40248233 40678325 41448295=20


=3D =3D =3D
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