ACUS11 KWNS 062016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062015=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Areas affected...Western and Central Montana into Northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062015Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across portions
of central and western Montana, as well as portions of northern
Wyoming, later this afternoon or early evening... primarily for
damaging winds and hail.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed over portions of
Idaho and Montana ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough, progressing
eastward from OR/WA. Current SPC Mesoanalysis and forecast proximity
soundings suggests that the ongoing convection in Montana is rooted
above the boundary-layer, but may later become surface based as the boundary-layer continues to mix throughout the afternoon. Recent
satellite trends suggests additional convective development over far
eastern ID and western MT is likely, which will move eastward into
central MT this afternoon and evening. Ongoing convection in far
northwestern WY, where surface-based CINH has eroded, will also move
eastward into north-central and northeastern WY.=20

Convection is expected to be high-based, with MLLCL heights ranging
from 2-3 km in height due to modest dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s
F. However, MLCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, coupled with
deep-layer shear values between 35-45 kts (owing to mostly
straight-line hodographs), will support organized convective
clusters and high-based supercell thunderstorms. Due to the high
based nature of convection, and relatively dry boundary layer
profiles, damaging straight-line winds from thunderstorm outflow
will be possible. Additionally, any organized supercells will be
capable of large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed
later this afternoon and into the evening.

..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rMz4KZXr9Jam6dx4MJONFQZmUUXC5CFuBxAhVHrDAmG4Cz3eLK_6W9BMzp0w4cvFTHI1YmSg= HO1WlSiKkhTklhSZMI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45330964 46331172 46851245 47461289 48241276 48961261
48981011 48950843 48330764 47280661 46380587 44630509
44100523 43820565 43840640 44190723 44670814 45330964=20


=3D =3D =3D
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