ACUS11 KWNS 021945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021945=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021945Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast MD
and eastern PA may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this
afternoon. A WW is uncertain though convective trends will continue
to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Over the last
hour, a cluster near the MD/PA border has slowly intensified with a
notable increase in lightning and reflectively. Likely supported by
subtle ascent from a passing shortwave and remnant convective
outflows, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely continue to support
strong updraft development/maintenance. Vertical shear is quite
limited with flow generally less than 25 kt. Storm intensity will
likely remain tied to forward propagation along advancing outflow
with this cluster. The moderate buoyancy and large water loading
will likely support a isolated stronger downdrafts with low-end
potential for 50-60 mph gusts. Storms should track east/northeast
through the afternoon across parts of eastern PA into NJ. Storm
organization appears quite limited.

..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RAg2JRe_6EE9BDFaFHO91spIK814XFtdtss7VVv9Wqm_WSf3pW-VbCSXBdnUtPntaa6QNaQT= T7jMC-2K-pTqZd2214$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40407573 40777465 40767419 40477393 39847432 39497479
39417523 39397569 39417606 39447623 39597646 39717638
40407573=20


=3D =3D =3D
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