ACUS11 KWNS 170019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170018=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 170018Z - 170215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of strong to severe wind gusts and
marginally severe hail are possible. A watch is not currently
expected, though convective trends will be monitored for signs of
increasing organization.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KSGF/KLZK shows a cluster of
storms over northern AR, generally focused along an
east/west-oriented remnant outflow boundary. These storms are
evolving in an environment characterized by strong to locally
extreme surface-based instability (3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). While
this is promoting robust updraft pulses, the most favorable
deep-layer shear is displaced to the north of this activity (per
regional VWP). As a result, individual updrafts have generally been short-lived. Nevertheless, the focused mesoscale ascent combined
with the aforementioned buoyancy could support a couple instances of
strong to locally severe downbursts (especially with any congealing
cold pools) and marginally severe hail.

With time, there is some potential for an increase in storm coverage
and perhaps intensity along the outflow boundary -- aided by an
approaching remnant MCV and related enhancement of vertical shear
from the west. However, nocturnal cooling/stabilization of the
boundary layer could tend to limit the overall severe threat.
Convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NbQfbdwYQDfB_Zy9SlZWkyzaUjikQRAY797TC72wXEMVGyFJcGmrpF003XnAlDaRmIkNzPxL= zOEhqhDViRpZWmRgoU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35569054 35639280 35829323 36229355 36569358 36959339
37109305 37069231 36859102 36719049 36429008 35849014
35569054=20


=3D =3D =3D
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