• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1534

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Thu Jul 4 18:59:05 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 041859
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041858=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1534
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

    Areas affected...central/northern Iowa...southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041858Z - 042100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may increase in coverage through the
    afternoon and evening with potential for damaging winds and large
    hail.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing near a cold
    front moving eastward across Iowa and southern Minnesota. Surface
    observations show a boundary lifting slowly across northern Iowa,
    with additional cu developing and a few thunderstorms that have
    initiated across eastern/northern Iowa into southern Minnesota.
    Instability has been slow to increase and confined within a smaller
    corridor across northwestern Iowa. Clearing south of the warm front
    has led to an increase in heating and some airmass recovery, with
    MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. Additional thunderstorm development will be
    possible across the cold front and northward lifting boundary
    through the afternoon. North of the warm front, supercells capable
    of large hail will be possible, given deep layer shear around 30-45
    kts near the IA/MN border.=20

    As stronger mid-level flow overspreads central Iowa through the
    afternoon, deep layer shear will increase across central/northern
    Iowa. This may support development of a few supercells, with
    potential for large hail and damaging wind should the thermodynamic
    environment be able to further destabilize. Given lower confidence
    in this scenario at this time, trends will be monitored for
    potential watch issuance later this afternoon.

    ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40T_J2WKrYqg3e-GxWufoHFwY7-dSNTShC12sGXekv-CdoePV7myapXY9tTRipATzhy8yPtmW= ZuIZ8UbNXAD_DGIcRA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43179483 43769477 44419391 44409205 44039157 43729132
    43279117 42839120 42289224 42549476 43179483=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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