ACUS11 KWNS 290228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290227=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

Valid 290227Z - 290400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado remains
possible.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat is generally confined to two main
areas of convection. The first is in far eastern KS with a dominant
supercell, and the other is with a supercell over extreme
northwestern MO. Both of these storms persist amid an axis of strong
buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As
such, supercell structures may be maintained for another hour or so,
before upscale growth into storm clusters occurs, accompanied by a
continued threat for severe gusts and large hail. A tornado also
remains possible. However, the supercell over eastern KS appears to
be HP and is potentially merging with nearby convection. Some of the
latest HRRR runs depict the possibility of ongoing storms merging
into a bow-echo structure. Should this occur, severe gusts will
become the main threat.

..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7P3nZ-0mDBZi7h1KYPL8XIZwVuXE0DbmTbc2HsmAEcN49NZ1PHCCw1Rwao_-pH3Kd6SFpNidO= bN2HOW7eM6NukAwemM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38979659 39629602 40199552 40519511 40549453 40459404
40429387 39719311 39079324 38369415 38089493 38099574
38239612 38979659=20


=3D =3D =3D
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